Beige Book: Growth Slows to Slight or No Change in Most Districts
The Federal Reserve's October 2026 Beige Book shows economic activity grew slightly or not at all in most districts, with tariffs and energy costs pressuring prices.
What you need to know
The Federal Reserve's October 2026 Beige Book, based on information collected on or before October 5, reported that economic activity grew slightly or not at all in most of the twelve districts, while manufacturing led moderate growth in Dallas and several other districts.
- Two districts reported moderate growth, three modest, four slight, and three no significant change.
- Most districts saw little or no change in consumer spending, with over half noting high-income households drove spending.
- Three districts characterized price growth as robust, while eight noted moderate growth and four said the pace picked up.
Activity and demand
The report, prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said two of the twelve districts reported moderate growth since the prior Beige Book. Three reported modest growth, four slight growth, and three no significant change. Manufacturing was the strongest sector, with Dallas reporting robust, broad-based growth; six other districts saw modest to moderate manufacturing growth, and five reported little or none.
Consumer spending was mostly flat. Auto contacts in five of six reporting districts noted flat to modestly lower sales. More than half the districts said high-income households drove spending. Tourism continued to grow, but Boston, Minneapolis, and San Francisco reported declines in sales from Canadian tourists. Most districts kept a positive outlook, though expectations leaned toward slight growth tied to manufacturing and tempered by persistent uncertainty.
Labor and prices
Labor markets were little changed: three districts reported modest employment increases, five slight increases, and four no significant change. Labor supply was generally adequate, but shortages persisted for specialized, technical, and skilled trade workers. Five districts said some firms reduced staffing through attrition, delayed hiring, or expected less job creation after investing in AI to boost productivity. Wage growth was moderate in five districts, modest in four, and slight in two.
On prices, three districts called overall growth robust, eight moderate, and one modest. Four districts said the pace of increases picked up. Higher oil prices appeared in all district reports, with elevated diesel prices and fuel surcharges passing costs through supply chains. Contacts also cited pressure from other commodities, tariffs, and insurance. Consumer-facing firms reported tighter margins as price-sensitive customers resisted increases, and several districts expected further price increases as contracts expire.
What did the October 2026 Beige Book say about consumer spending?
Most districts reported little or no change in consumer spending, and over half said high-income households drove it. Auto sales were flat to modestly lower in five of six reporting districts.
Sources & context
- National Summary - Beige Book - October 2026 ↗federalreserve.gov
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