IMF Projects 3.1% Global Growth in 2026, Flags Uneven Resilience
IMF's October 2026 outlook forecasts 3.1% global growth for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027, with inflation at 4.7% and 4.1%, and warns of downside risks.
What you need to know
The IMF forecasts 3.1% global growth in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, according to its October 2026 World Economic Outlook. Headline inflation is projected at 4.7% and 4.1% for the two years. The Fund describes resilience as uneven, with energy importers outside technology supply chains facing particular difficulty.
- Global output growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
- Headline inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027.
- Downside risks include renewed conflict, trade tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities and a reassessment of AI investment expectations.
Growth and inflation projections
The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts global output growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Headline inflation is projected at 4.7% and 4.1%, respectively. The statistical cutoff for the main chapter and online appendix is 1 October 2026, and the figures are forecasts rather than realised outcomes.
Uneven resilience and risks
The Fund describes resilience as uneven, with energy importers outside technology supply chains facing particular difficulty. Downside risks include renewed conflict, trade tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities and a reassessment of AI investment expectations. Possible upside forces include stronger technology investment, productivity improvements and easing geopolitical tensions.
The IMF urges governments to rebuild fiscal room and preserve monetary and financial stability.
Cost-of-living policy
The IMF's cost-of-living analysis favours temporary income transfers targeted at vulnerable households over suppressing prices. It estimates that price-suppressing measures may require three to 22 times the fiscal resources of targeted temporary transfers.
What does the IMF recommend for cost-of-living support?
The IMF favours temporary income transfers targeted at vulnerable households over price-suppressing measures, estimating the latter may require three to 22 times the fiscal resources of targeted temporary transfers.
Sources & context
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