IEA: Tanker Rates Push Up Delivered Crude Costs
IEA analysts report Middle East Gulf-to-Asia crude freight above $37 a barrel by mid-October 2026, with Suezmax and Aframax tonne-mile demand up about 20% year-on-year.
What you need to know
IEA analysts Daniel Gymer and David Martin report that by mid-October 2026 large-tanker crude freight from the Middle East Gulf to Asia exceeded $37 a barrel, more than five times the pre-war level. The agency cites congestion near Hormuz, longer routes and ship-to-ship transfers, and says high delivered costs pushed September Asian refining margins on Middle Eastern crude below zero.
- Middle East Gulf-to-Asia large-tanker crude freight exceeded $37 a barrel by mid-October 2026
- Suezmax and Aframax tonne-mile demand was around 20% higher year-on-year in Q3
- September Asian refining margins on Middle Eastern crude fell below zero
Freight costs and routes
In the IEA commentary, analysts Daniel Gymer and David Martin attribute the freight pressure to congestion near Hormuz, longer routes and ship-to-ship transfers that keep vessels occupied for longer. Mid-October Suezmax freight from West Africa to Europe exceeded $22 a barrel, while North Sea Aframax freight topped $6 a barrel.
The agency reports that September attacks temporarily interrupted Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which was repaired within days. Demand for Suezmax and Aframax shipping, measured in tonne-miles, was around 20% higher year-on-year in the third quarter, according to the commentary.
Refining and outlook
The IEA says high delivered crude costs pushed September Asian refining margins on Middle Eastern crude below zero. Refiners can respond by changing crude grades or lowering processing, but the commentary notes these choices can reduce yields or tighten fuel availability.
The commentary states that shipping constraints may persist even after Gulf security improves. The assessments are dated IEA findings rather than live market quotes.
What does the IEA say refiners can do about high delivered crude costs?
The commentary says refiners can switch crude grades or lower processing, but notes that these responses can reduce yields or tighten fuel availability as shipping constraints persist.
Sources & context
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